Monday, 12 March 2007
The media is refusing to countenance an electoral collapse of the Liberal party.
The election is still months off and the policy weakness of both parties means the situation is still volatile, but that does not mean there is any reason to dismiss the current polls as ‘incredible’ as much of the media are. On what basis are they doing so? None have questioned the polls’ methods, none have posed an alternative poll of their own (Newspoll: ALP 57%, Nielsen: 61% and Morgan: 61.5% have all been seen as unfeasibly high). There has not even been an attempt to try and pose an alternative reading of the public mood.
There seems to be no basis for dismissing these polls other than the fact it has not happened electorally before.
But that is based on the assumption that nothing unprecedented is happening. This is despite Australia already having an unprecedented all-Labor rule in the states and some with unprecedented majorities. Australia would not be the first Western democracy to face fundamental changes in the political order since the end of the Cold War and there is no reason, on evidence, why it is not facing one now.
Posted by The Piping Shrike on Monday, 12 March 2007.Filed under Media analysis