The Galaxy poll today showing a narrowing of Labor’s lead follows the latest Morgan poll recording a similar move. These are less of a surprise than the last Newspoll which showed a jump the other way following the fuss around Rein’s business affairs. As said earlier, the episode was probably more negative for Labor than the media suggested. The public’s thrill that Rudd has a modern marriage probably had less impact than the publicising of Ingeus’s employment conditions had on Labor’s IR attack. However, IR was less of a vote decider than Labor supporters liked to believe and the impact of Rudd’s retreat and subsequent disassociation from the unions is likely to be a temporary one.

Having said that, a more fundamental development in climate change politics, that occurred after the polls were taken, may have slightly more lasting benefit for the government. While Howard still looked like an old man feigning interest in the report of his taskforce, the equally clumsy attempts by the Bush administration to adopt the climate change agenda does at least make Howard look less out of line than he did a few days ago. At the end of the day, however, climate change politics is about a fight for leadership of the global political agenda and both Bush and Howard are too personally associated with the previous ‘War on Terror’ agenda to be able to make a convincing transition.

Posted by The Piping Shrike on Monday, 4 June 2007.

Filed under State of the parties

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