A credible softening of support

Tuesday, 28 August 2007 

Poor Mr. Morgan.

For the second time this year his polling organisation has suggested a possibly interesting turn in polling trends that was ignored until picked up by a rival organisation. Back at the end of May, Morgan reported a softening of the ALP’s vote following the Therese Rein affair that was ignored until it was picked up by Galaxy. This signalled the start of a modest erosion in the ALP’s 2PP over the next few months although for reasons commentators were surprisingly reluctant to draw out.

The latest Galaxy poll showing a softening of the government vote once again follows similar Morgan polls (face-to-face and telephone) showing this time a sharp move back to Labor. Only three polls, so no big deal, but it is still credible that government support is softening. As argued a week ago, government support was looking vulnerable because Howard’s move to local issues was a disastrous move for someone supposed to be running as the Prime Minister of the country not Queensland Local Government Minister. It is this move off the national stage that compounded the damage from the recent interest rate rise. It wasn’t so much that rates went up, but by blaming the states for it, Howard exposed the reality that he didn’t have much control over what they did. As the Galaxy poll showed with voters attributing the budget surplus to too high taxes, it is no good having a strong economy if you can’t take credit for it.

Posted by The Piping Shrike on Tuesday, 28 August 2007.

Filed under Tactics

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