Friday, 10 December 2010
Surely the important revelation about Arbib is not that he is a spy for the Americans, but that he is a clairvoyant. How else could he possibly have known nine months before, that Rudd’s popularity would collapse to an election-losing level and force a reluctant Gillard to take the leadership? Magic! Clearly though, the crystal ball must have gone dark when it came to the disastrous election that followed and the malaise that the government now finds itself in.
It seems, though, that Arbib was not the only one to have a crystal ball. Dennis saw it coming as well. Shanahan has used the leak to have a go at Barrie Cassidy. Cassidy has been a sucker for the Labor faction bosses myth that the June coup was a last minute thought. Shanahan derides “self serving” analysts who claim that Rudd’s problems only happened in the last few months by pointing out that it was back in October when the rot set in during the Oceanic Viking fiasco. From then the public became disenchanted with the Rudd government, with Labor’s 2PP lead falling from 18% in October to 6% in February.
Far be it from this blog to call Shanahan self-serving, but anyone looking at Newspoll would see firstly that the sharpest single fall in Rudd polling followed the dumping of the ETS in April, for the same reason as the Oceanic Viking being stuck off the Indonesian coast did Rudd no good either, it made the government look adrift and out of control. Shouldn’t Dennis have mentioned that as well?
But more importantly, if 53/47 signifies disenchantment with Rudd’s government, what must Shanahan think of the Howard government, which barely managed to get to even that level for most of its time in office? In the whole of Howard’s last term, he managed to only exceed that level of ‘disenchantment’ twice, the last in early 2005.
In reality Shanahan’s polling explanation is as bogus as Cassidy’s. Like the US State Department, both were being fed by Labor power brokers. It was why Shanahan could confidently report of a challenge against Rudd for months, and then just as confidently claimed it wouldn’t happen after an acquiescent caucus, then it would, after being fed again, then it wouldn’t, the day before it actually did. The reality was that the war with the factions, especially the NSW Right, was ongoing throughout Rudd’s term but consistently ignored by the media. The factions were itching to get rid of Rudd even while his polling was sky high, as it was last October, but only had the opportunity when Rudd’s polling started to reach earth after months of leaking to their friends in the press. As it was, the last of Dennis’s Newspoll before Rudd was dumped, at 52/48, was still better than they actually ended up getting. But then, who’s counting?
Posted by The Piping Shrike on Friday, 10 December 2010.Filed under Media analysis