Friday, 10 December 2010 

Surely the important revelation about Arbib is not that he is a spy for the Americans, but that he is a clairvoyant. How else could he possibly have known nine months before, that Rudd’s popularity would collapse to an election-losing level and force a reluctant Gillard to take the leadership? Magic! Clearly though, the crystal ball must have gone dark when it came to the disastrous election that followed and the malaise that the government now finds itself in.

It seems, though, that Arbib was not the only one to have a crystal ball. Dennis saw it coming as well. Shanahan has used the leak to have a go at Barrie Cassidy. Cassidy has been a sucker for the Labor faction bosses myth that the June coup was a last minute thought. Shanahan derides “self serving” analysts who claim that Rudd’s problems only happened in the last few months by pointing out that it was back in October when the rot set in during the Oceanic Viking fiasco. From then the public became disenchanted with the Rudd government, with Labor’s 2PP lead falling from 18% in October to 6% in February.

Far be it from this blog to call Shanahan self-serving, but anyone looking at Newspoll would see firstly that the sharpest single fall in Rudd polling followed the dumping of the ETS in April, for the same reason as the Oceanic Viking being stuck off the Indonesian coast did Rudd no good either, it made the government look adrift and out of control. Shouldn’t Dennis have mentioned that as well?

But more importantly, if 53/47 signifies disenchantment with Rudd’s government, what must Shanahan think of the Howard government, which barely managed to get to even that level for most of its time in office? In the whole of Howard’s last term, he managed to only exceed that level of ‘disenchantment’ twice, the last in early 2005.

In reality Shanahan’s polling explanation is as bogus as Cassidy’s. Like the US State Department, both were being fed by Labor power brokers. It was why Shanahan could confidently report of a challenge against Rudd for months, and then just as confidently claimed it wouldn’t happen after an acquiescent caucus, then it would, after being fed again, then it wouldn’t, the day before it actually did. The reality was that the war with the factions, especially the NSW Right, was ongoing throughout Rudd’s term but consistently ignored by the media. The factions were itching to get rid of Rudd even while his polling was sky high, as it was last October, but only had the opportunity when Rudd’s polling started to reach earth after months of leaking to their friends in the press. As it was, the last of Dennis’s Newspoll before Rudd was dumped, at 52/48, was still better than they actually ended up getting. But then, who’s counting?

Posted by The Piping Shrike on Friday, 10 December 2010.

Filed under Media analysis

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7 responses to “Ozileaks”

  1. Riccardo on 10th December 2010 1:47 pm

    Presumably the pro-Rudd right who went against Kimbo in the leadership vote were being brought back into line the whole time Rudd was PM. He didn’t even have a numbers man for the final vote.

  2. Come Monday « Café Whispers on 13th December 2010 9:29 am

    […] themselves in something different than Wikileaks I highly recommend The Piping Shrike article, Ozileaks which puts some reality towards the accusations made against Mark Arbib over the last couple of […]

  3. Thomas Paine on 14th December 2010 8:51 pm

    The question is just how many Labor Ministers and MPs are owned by the USA. And just what level of influence have they had and are having of policy making.

    Clearly they have Gillard singing their line on Assange to the detriment of her polling health.

    Gillard’s worse nightmare would be if Assange returned to Ausrtalia. That would leave her having to malign Assange in every way imaginable so she could extradite him to the USA without massive voter backlash, aka John Howard.

    Rudd seems to be set free by the content of leaks on him and the Assange business. ANd is enjoying a more aggressive approach to political life. He is at no risk and realises the US in this business is the Evil Empire.

  4. James on 15th December 2010 9:29 am

    The media seems the big winner from the Wikileaks cables in the short term. They can publish what they like from them, sensationalise them as they please, and wait until the news cycle has passed, or even longer, before the actual cables are up on the Internet. And it can all be moulded to fit whatever political agenda they desire, such as their narrative of choice about how wrong Labor gets things.

    In the longer term, the Internet media paradigm that enables Wikileaks to exist and operate they way it does may spell the demise of the mainstream media as we know it. Though I’m sure they will do their best to control whatever paradigm replaces them.

  5. Riccardo on 15th December 2010 11:23 am

    Gillard’s been very quiet of late. Convenient holiday time. If Assange does return what trumped up charges will they find for him.

    I’ve been trying to plot what air route he can use to get back. Not via HK – the PRC might go for him. Not via Singapore or the Gulf States – their regimes would also happily hand him over to the Yanks. No direct flights from Cuba, Venezuela or other useful places to Aus!

  6. The Piping Shrike on 15th December 2010 6:39 pm

    If they pursue this, I don’t think this will be helpful for Gillard wherever he ends up, although not as negative as some press say, merely awkward.

    I think the mainstream media have been very much the winners of this, less the internet, because there is no real political incentive to read the cables beyond what the papers release.

  7. James on 16th December 2010 10:05 am

    The mainstream media coming up trumps is a recurring theme. They largely seem untouchable in this country. Surely there will come a day when the public transfers its contempt for politicians onto the media? When that occurs, the media will just adapt to deflect the transference. Circumstances would have to be unprecedented in this country for the mainstream media to lose its teflon.

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