Decay

Friday, 30 January 2015    

David Rowe, AFR

David Rowe, AFR

Conviction politicians hard to find anywhere. Australia’s Tony Abbott a rare exception. Opponent Rudd all over the place convincing nobody.

R Murdoch scribbling on a wall, 19 August 2013

Abbott again. Tough to write, but if he won’t replace top aide Peta Credlin she must do her patriotic duty and resign.
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Tagged R Murdoch 18 months later

You can imagine the thinking. “That Honours system I introduced is in danger of being ridiculed. What it needs is gravitas. I know!” And short of Elizabeth tapping herself on the shoulder, who better to do it than the Duke of Edinburgh, Baron of Greenwich, Earl of Merioneth etc. etc. etc.

But the mistake Abbott made was failing to get that it was not that people didn’t take the Honours system seriously enough, but they got the serious central point of it all too well, the problem of the Monarchy. Abbott is a Monarchist in a Republican country, that only isn’t so because 15 years ago the idiotic left decided to offer Australian voters an even more unpalatable alternative, a Politicians’ Republic.

The last time this blogger checked, the Liberal party was still fairly Monarchist as well, with only a creeping Republicanism as it transforms from the democratic impulse of forty years ago to the nationalist tosh of today. The party may not have proposed Philip in the first place, but the idea that it would have delivered such a snub to the Monarchy by rejecting Philip, as one Liberal MP suggested, is typical of the furious re-writing and back-tracking that is now underway.

The desperate positioning going on in the right at the moment at least explains some very curious features of this outbreak of speculation over the future of Abbott’s leadership.

The first is the sheer casualness of it. The dumping of a Prime Minister in his first term because of poor polls is virtually unprecedented in Australian political history. Rudd, of course, was dumped not because of his unpopularity (the 52:48 lead he had in his last Newspoll in 2010 is one this government hasn’t enjoyed since two months after it took office). Rudd’s dumping was an institutional power play disguised as a poll driven one, which became increasingly unconvincing as his successor clung on with full institutional backing, despite plumbing the polling depths.

On the Coalition side, Gorton’s dumping after three years in 1971 has been given as an example. But this too was less poll driven than essentially a battle over states’ rights, as the Liberals showed the limits of their ability to implement what would be later best described as the Whitlam Settlement.

The only remotely comparable example is the dumping of Abbott’s twin, Gillard, which Rudd pulled off against overwhelming institutional resistance because of polling. Although even here, it was also a lot to do with the power brokers and unions starting to lose control of the Parliamentary Party (plus the additional incentive highlighted by Rudd in the last caucus, that if the Libs won control of the Senate, there could be a Royal Commission with full powers against the unions that could …).

The point is that at the moment there is no issue that the Libs could really summon up that would justify Abbott’s removal other than lousy polls and mistakes. That’s not normal. Howard survived worst in his first term. But this leads on to another odd feature about the current leadership speculation.

Pretty well nowhere in the commentary is the problem seen as extending beyond Abbott and his office, to the Liberal party as a whole. This is odd first of all because it’s hardly just Abbott who had a problem last year. The performance of the holders of two of the government’s most important posts, the Treasurer and the Attorney General, has hardly been sparkling. And furthermore, the problems of Hockey and Brandis have been on issues that are precisely what modern conservatism is supposed to be about, economic rationalism (the Budget) and the tedious culture war to roll back the Whitlam Settlement (18C).

That the Liberals have escaped such scrutiny is especially odd if one thinks why they are led by someone who is, and has long been, so unpopular in the first place, namely to restore the Liberal party’s brand.

It’s been forgotten now but Abbott was appointed not because he was going to be a killer against Labor but actually the opposite. The Liberal front bench split in half and resigned in 2009, and were prepared to default the next election by choosing one of their least popular politicians to lead it, because they were more worried what was happening to the party’s political identity than electoral success – reaching a crisis point when Turnbull signed up to Rudd’s CRS.

The dilemma for the Liberals at the time was that in defending the party’s brand, it would also expose its electoral irrelevance, because its ideological agenda was as anachronistic as the unions’ social one. This dilemma was not only shown by the unpopularity of the party’s banner carrier, but that as soon as he took over, the public show of climate scepticism that rallied the party to him had to be dropped.

The subsequent disintegration on the Labor side allowed all of this to be ignored, and allowed conservative commentators to dream that their agenda had some electoral relevance, and the less ideological commentators to believe the electoral pendulum was still swinging (if getting a bit rusty on the Labor side).

The dreaming is over. The reckoning now, and the frantic attempts to cover up what had been evident all along by dumping all the problems of the right and the Liberals on to Abbott, and even his Chief of Staff, is feeding this irrationality. It is permitting the open thinking of the unthinkable barely a year and half after they were crowing about Labor doing the same thing. If Murdoch is taking the lead on it, it’s only because the sly old fox is showing conservative commentators (including those in the Fairfax stable) a temporary way out of this mess, and to maintain the pretence the right agenda still has relevance.

It does not. This is especially clear in Australia where the right has never stood on its own feet, but relied excessively on a dull, if rather sleazy family in the south western London suburbs – or otherwise being against Labor’s project, which has clearly run its course. Bill Shorten.

What we are really seeing now is not the stumbles of one leader, but that the pas de deux that has kept this tedious show on the road for the last four and a half years is now, thankfully, coming to an end. As it does, at least the real state of things since Howard left the scene will now become unavoidable, even to conservative commentators with a franchise to protect.

5 comments

Home front – an update

Wednesday, 24 December 2014    

We don’t blame the Pope for the IRA, and we don’t blame the Catholics living next door for the folly of some people, the folly and madness of some people who may claim a Christian motivation. And I think we need to be similarly carefully and cautious in these other areas.

T Abbott 17 December 2014

She might not even be Muslim or she could have just been warm!

Rachel Jacobs, instigator of #illridewithyou

If there was a sense that the political message went a bit adrift after the Martin Place siege, it was because the respective narratives both the left and the right were comfortably trotting along with over the last few months fell apart in the face of reality last week. Read more …

45 comments

Positioning

Thursday, 11 December 2014    

David Rowe, AFR

David Rowe, AFR

It’s all looking so eerily familiar. Read more …

12 comments

Whitlam

Wednesday, 22 October 2014    

gough_article_1a4bann-1a4bans

In 1972, the AWU, one of Australia’s largest union, then and now, officially abandoned its commitment to the White Australia Policy. If some find it surprising that the glorious AWU left its distinctly inglorious past, er, rather late, it perhaps shows how much we now view the past through the prism of the political settlement that followed, a political settlement that Whitlam had a leading role in making, but at the time of his death, is now unravelling. Read more …

18 comments

Home front

Thursday, 28 August 2014    

So I imagine that from time to time they would want a different captain but nevertheless, that’s what he said, that we’re all part of Team Australia and you’re our captain.

Captain Australia, 20 August 2014

A curious obliviousness has descended over the political scene and its commentary to the escalation of tensions over Iraq. Partly it comes from the desperation of a government thinking that it will solve its significant political problems. Partly it comes from the opposition’s fear it will as well, on top of the normal shutdown it has over anything to do with national security, especially under its current leader.

But it’s also to do with the complications behind the current escalation that neither side wants to see. Read more …

11 comments

Chaos

Monday, 11 August 2014    

David Rowe: AFR

David Rowe: AFR

What this government is trying to do is trying to stop Australian Muslims travelling overseas to murder other Muslims. They’re going to Iraq, they’re going to Syria. There are Sunnis targeting Shiites. This is not an anti-Muslim attitude; this is an attitude that’s trying to save the lives of other Muslims from being attacked by Australian Muslims. Read more …

13 comments

Disaster politics

Thursday, 31 July 2014    

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We’ve got a situation where Tony Abbott’s become the strongest leader in the world on this issue.

Gerard Henderson

Right now there could well be remains exposed to the European summer, exposed to the ravages of heat and animals.

Tony Abbott

As a prime minister of a country, how does a tragedy like this affect you at a personal level?

Fran Kelly

 

Context is all.

The last few weeks have reminded that in recent years something rather unpleasant has entered politics, and the commentary that surrounds it. It is not only unpleasant to watch but has caused politicians to fumble on sensitive issues and commentators to completely mis-read the impact on the electorate at home. Read more …

15 comments

The confusions of anti-politics

Tuesday, 15 July 2014    

Political sophisticate meets naïve political rube, from the US.

Political sophisticate meets naïve political rube, from the US.

I’m determined to get on with governing

T Abbott 11 July 2014

I’m determined to get on with the job of governing,

J Gillard 31 January 2013

The Labor Party was formed to represent the workers, the Liberals to represent business, the Nationals to represent people in rural and regional Australia. But Palmer United was formed simply out of hatred for Campbell Newman.

Senior Coalition member talking to Laurie Oakes

We have got situation normal.

T Abbott

If this is situation normal, why doesn’t it feel like it?

As commentators have said, dealing with tricky players in the Palmer United Party isn’t new. Steve Fielding and Nick Xenophon weren’t exactly a barrel of laughs for the Rudd government either. Even the Australian Democrats on their high horse could give Howard headaches.

The difference is not so much Palmer, but the weak position of the government that is negotiating with him. Read more …

19 comments

What a technocracy looks like

Friday, 30 May 2014    

The entire gamut of Australian politics. From A to B.

The entire gamut of Australian politics. From A to B.

The South Australian Labor Party is so clearly out of talent it has to reach into the ranks of the Liberal Party to fill its Ministry.

Liberal MP Jamie Biggs’s response to Hamilton-Smith’s defection. Perhaps not quite thought through.

If Queensland continues to show with its latest product that it remains the home of anti-politics, on Tuesday South Australia showed, in fairly spectacular fashion, that it remains the home of its flipside, the political class’s response of technocracy.

Hamilton-Smith’s defection is, of course, not the first seen in Australian politics, nor is it the first time this state Labor government has had political opponents in the cabinet, with ex-Liberals like Rory McEwan and National MP Karlene Maywald in the Rann Labor Cabinet. Yet there are some features of not only the defection, but the response to it, that make it illustrative of the curious state of politics today. Read more …

4 comments

Budget panto goes wrong

Monday, 19 May 2014    

If there is one thing that sums up the contradiction in the government’s position that is behind what is turning into a political disaster, is that a few weeks before the Budget came out, the Commission of Audit proposed one of the most radical overhauls of the Australian economy in fifty years – to one of the weakest governments capable of implementing it. Read more …

37 comments

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